Cambodia Seeks Balance Between China and USA Under Trump 2.0

The US presidential election was eagerly awaited in the Kingdom of Cambodia. After all, it was clear that the rivalry between the USA and China, which had already been announced in advance, and Trump's proclaimed foreign and domestic policy focus on “America First” could have a significant political and economic impact on the country. 

With its chequered history as a friend and foe of the USA, Cambodia is once again at a decisive watershed in its relations with the United States and China. 

Cambodia and the USA have a very volatile relationship

Relations between Cambodia and the US have been characterized by periods of cooperation, tension, and outright estrangement. They date back to the 1950s when the USA recognized Cambodia's independence from France. Diplomatic relations were interrupted between 1964 and 1969 and were only resumed in the fall of 1970 under Lon Nol's rule. He had come to power with the help of Washington. During this time, US President Nixon ordered heavy bombing in eastern Cambodia and parts of Laos to destroy the retreat and supply areas of the North Vietnamese Viet Cong units.

The subsequent seizure of power by the Khmer Rouge and their overthrow in 1979 by the invasion of Vietnamese army units further worsened relations. The Paris Peace Agreement of 1991 then marked a turning point, as the USA strongly supported Cambodia's democratic transition, both financially and politically, in the wake of the UN mission (UNTAC). 

In recent years, however, relations have become increasingly tense again. Points of conflict have been the human rights record, the suppression of the political opposition, and their exclusion from municipal and parliamentary elections, but in particular the rapid and extensive growth in relations with China with strong bilateral ties in key areas such as investment, trade, and security policy. 

Trump and Biden have so far relied on confrontation and cooperation at the same time

US policy towards Cambodia has been unsteady, contradictory, and, above all, incoherent in terms of intended effects, especially in the last decade. The pendulum has swung from the assessment of Cambodia as an “authoritarian pariah state” that must be punished until it is democratically constituted, to the pragmatic view of integrating the small country as a necessary partner in the competition against China. 

The first Trump administration endeavored to achieve a rapprochement in the interest of integrating Cambodia into the foreign policy interests of the USA, but on the other hand, intensified criticism and even imposed sanctions in some cases in view of the democratic deficits, above all due to the treatment of the political opposition. The Biden administration continued on this course, criticizing the human rights situation but increasingly looking for areas of meaningful cooperation. 

However, the relationship between the United States and Cambodia is and remains burdened by its painful history. At present, it remains to be seen whether the challenging balancing act that both sides have repeatedly achieved over long stretches in the past, despite their differences, can be continued.  

In retrospect, it should be remembered that in the context of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, Cambodia, as a small state that tends to rely on multilateralism, had previously positioned itself on the side of Ukraine, i.e. also of the USA and the West. 

There are ways and opportunities for better relations between the US and Cambodia

A Trump 2.0 administration will redefine its diplomatic relations with Cambodia and the underlying foreign policy objectives. However, serious concerns about democracy and human rights are not to be expected from Trump, which is unlikely to be regretted by the Cambodian government. However, this does not rule out the possibility that - wherever it appears useful to the Americans for their interests - corresponding criticism could be voiced and instrumentalized to exert pressure on Cambodia. It is clear that the Trump administration sees relations between Cambodia and China primarily through the lens of the rivalry between the two superpowers, which could lead to increased pressure on Cambodia. 

At the same time, the US could step up its efforts to prevent an even closer alliance between the Kingdom and the People's Republic of China through a combination of incentives and possible punitive measures: Economic cooperation would be a good way to improve relations.

Economic cooperation would be a good way to improve relations. Although China is Cambodia's largest trading partner, the USA is the largest buyer of goods from the Kingdom, accounting for 40 percent of Cambodian exports. Because of China's dominance and the associated dependency risks, its government has been trying to diversify its trade partnerships and foreign investments for some time. Cambodia could also be the winner of Trump's announced tariff policy if Vietnam is affected. In this case, it is conceivable that production capacities would potentially be relocated to Cambodia. 

Furthermore, common interests in regional stability, combating terrorism, and the fight against organized human trafficking would offer opportunities for deeper cooperation, dialogue, and mutual appreciation.

For its part, the US could work with Cambodia as part of a broader strategy to maintain its influence in Southeast Asia, possibly through ASEAN-coordinated initiatives. Military considerations are also likely to be important, as concerns about possible Chinese military access to Cambodian military installations (e.g. the Ream naval military base, southeast of Sihanoukville on the Gulf of Thailand) could increase the focus on Cambodia's strategic importance. 

For its part, Cambodia could base its strategic balance on firmly establishing its commitment to neutrality and non-alignment as a core foreign policy premise to avoid being drawn into the escalating tensions between the US and China. The Kingdom could expand its international partnerships in order to reduce its dependence on China. It could also use its ASEAN membership to manage great power dynamics in its own interests of neutrality, promote regional stability, and assert its sovereignty and territorial integrity against external pressure. 

Cambodia's complex geopolitical environment requires a pragmatic diplomatic approach. The Cambodian government must skillfully weigh the benefits of Chinese assistance against the potential benefits of improving relations with the US. 

Trump's second government got off to a rather bad start

For the possible scenarios described above, the start of Trump's term in office in Cambodia was the worst possible starting point, as a great deal of trust has been destroyed. 

The unexpected and abrupt termination of numerous projects for which USAID funding commitments had been in place for years, or for those in the middle of ongoing implementation, was a shock for the Cambodian side. This holds for both, the government and for the numerous national non-governmental organizations and international intermediary organizations that provide important services in the areas of basic health and the fight against epidemics (tuberculosis/HIV), for education, mine clearance, and in various structural areas of transparent governance, agriculture, and economic development. 

Although, understandably, new governments want to review their development aid abroad, the US government's decisions are abrupt, one-sided, and irresponsible. The reasons for this are incomprehensible and destroy the previously positive image that the USA enjoyed under the Cambodian population, especially in comparison to China. This assessment is widely shared among the national and international development partners concerned.

Government spokesperson Pen Bona tried to keep his cool and limit the damage. He assured that efforts are underway to find solutions and to exercise flexibility, including the search for alternative sources of funding. There are many ways to overcome these challenges without halting Cambodia's development progress, he indicated. 

The developments after Trump took office have led to bitterness and an extreme loss of confidence on the Cambodian side. It was only in October 2024 that USAID representative Samantha Power announced new commitments worth over USD 55 million during a visit to Cambodia, including USD 17 million for health, USD 29 million for agriculture, and USD 6 million for independent civil society and free media. A further USD 3 million from the US Department of Labor should support the integration of people with disabilities. 

While some funds, for example in the area of mine action, have meanwhile been released again, other programs - especially in areas such as agriculture or fisheries - are still in an evaluation phase. 

Yet, many organizations have already received official notification to confirm the withdrawal of funding commitments. Unsurprisingly, particularly independent and sometimes government-critical organizations are affected, especially those working on women's rights, gender equality, diversity, and minority rights or independent media, such as Women's Community Voices, which communicates the concerns of communities affected by climate change, land rights conflicts or deforestation. The well-known human rights organization ADHOC is one of the organizations hardest hit, with up to 70 percent of its base funding cut. 

The foundation's partners must also re-orient themselves, establish networks, create synergies with each other, and establish a more efficient and resilient modus operandi, as the financial cuts to their operational capacities cannot be replaced. 

The Foundations´ office in Phnom Penh will support such a process.